Opinion
Albanese will feel the heat in winter of discontent
David Crowe
Chief political correspondentThe gulf between the parliament and the people is a permanent feature of the national landscape because politicians are forever drawn to their own squabbles in the pursuit of power, creating distance from households where the priority is to manage the mortgage, the energy bill or the rent increase.
That gulf is widening, however, at a time when Australia is heading into a terrible downturn that will inflict real financial pain on ordinary people. The country is at real risk of recession – a prospect some economists are discussing as a serious possibility.
Illustration by Simon LetchCredit:
A winter of discontent lies ahead. There are at least five policy challenges that will deepen the chill: energy, housing, migration, productivity and wages. Parliament should have solutions on each one of these, yet it spends an awful lot of time talking about something else.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has answers to every question, but every answer needs time, so he is basically asking for patience from people under growing stress. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has complaints without solutions.
With hardship looming, some politicians think the best use of their time is to revive the arguments about rape allegations in parliament. The Voice, meanwhile, consumes debate. It does this for understandable reasons – it is the totemic change on Indigenous policy in this term, perhaps this decade or beyond – but it also prompts a fair question about the time needed for other challenges.
A reckoning has to come. It is easy for MPs to spend their time asking for a Taylor Swift concert in their home states – this particular plea came from Queensland Liberal Andrew Wallace on Thursday – but the economic debate must take primacy.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers is mapping out policies on every front, although the engagement across the parliament is relatively shallow. Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor asked about a potential recession at the first opportunity in question time on Monday, but he and his colleagues are not prosecuting a sustained or substantial argument about economic choices.
Challenges ahead: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in parliament this week.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
On housing, Labor is playing a strong political game but cannot fix the problem fast enough. Demand for housing outstrips supply, the cost of construction is too high and state laws constrain development, so the structural problems ensure more stress. Greens leader Adam Bandt rightly warns of pressures on renters, and he is not alone. Liberal MP Russell Broadbent told his party room on Tuesday about householders having their rents increased at twice the rate of inflation.
Labor has found $2 billion for states and territories to build social housing. Its Housing Australia Future Fund, however, only finances 30,000 homes which means, for all the noise, it is not a solution for millions of renters and mortgagees. The government’s housing accord, which is meant to build one million homes over five years, remains a work in progress.
On migration, the government needs time to ease anxiety about the forecast for net overseas migration of 400,000 this year and 315,000 next year. There is a live debate about whether this puts pressure on inflation. In theory, the influx can help unblock the supply constraints with skills and labour. In practice, it might shift pressure to another constraint, housing.
On energy, Labor has the political advantage of imposing price caps and funding subsidies despite objections from the Coalition last year. The political spin is that price hikes are lower than otherwise, but this does not save households from bill shock. Australians are being told their country is an energy superpower, only for them to be slugged with higher prices.
Migration and productivity will be front of mind for relevant ministers Clare O’Neil (Home Affairs) and Dr Jim Chalmers (Treasurer).Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
On productivity, the government is starting to use the word more often now that Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has gently reminded it about the need for action. The previous government ignored the Productivity Commission’s advice on this for nine years, but is Labor any keener to make hard choices?
The former head of the commission, Gary Banks, sounds despairing about getting a solution to the weakest productivity growth in six decades. “I am starting to wonder whether the reforms needed to achieve this are achievable, with political understanding of what’s required seemingly at a low ebb,” he said two weeks ago.
On wages, Labor is in a stand-off with employers over the “same job, same pay” changes that are yet to be drafted, but this is only one part of the income equation. Real wages rose 6.8 per cent last decade but have fallen 6.1 per cent in the first three years of this decade. This is a shocking trend that requires significant action. Can anyone be sure the next workplace changes will turn this around?
Labor would rather not acknowledge how bad the downturn is getting, while the Liberals have no new ideas after their election defeat. It may take a recession for the economic daydream to end. Voters, meanwhile, will pay their rising bills and wonder what on earth Parliament House is talking about.
Finally, a personal note. I was fortunate enough to win the Press Gallery Journalist of the Year award on Wednesday night after 18 years covering federal politics, which makes me a slow learner. My sharp and savvy colleague, Shane Wright, was highly commended and would have been an equally deserving winner. This is proof, if anyone needs it, that journalism awards are like a night at the casino. Unfairness is a feature of every award. Those who do not win require more stamina, and in many ways deserve more encouragement, than the lucky few.
I’ve worked with great journalists and editors since I started at Fairfax in Sydney in 1994, when the printing presses rumbled beneath the newsroom on Broadway. I’ve failed at times by missing a story or making a mistake (and adding a correction) but I see no shame in admitting failure. Samuel Beckett was right: “Try again. Fail again. Fail better.”
I am lucky to serve great newspapers and work in a wonderful Canberra bureau with smart and dedicated colleagues. Most of all I am lucky to work across print, online, podcast and video for an audience I will never take for granted, because none of our work is possible without loyal readers and subscribers. Thank you.
David Crowe is chief political correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
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