By Jon Pierik
Collingwood d Geelong
There are 17 other clubs who would love to be in Collingwood’s position with two rounds to go. The minor premiership is all but secured and, of more importance, also a top-two finish and the advantages that brings in September. That said, as encouraging as their performance was against Geelong, the Pies’ problems don’t exactly start with Nick Daicos and end with Darcy Moore. Yes, they rediscovered their pressure game – and their run off half-back has returned – but there were periods when they allowed the Cats to move the ball far too easily. It will take a repeat against Brisbane to back up Craig McRae’s assertion they are back to “one of the best pressure teams in the comp”. Their defence held up after quarter-time without Moore, but the Cats still scored the century. Despite two goals, the jury is still out on Jeremy Howe as a forward. He may be needed in defence to cover Moore if Billy Frampton cannot step up but, coming back from a badly broken arm, is down on previous years. On the flip side, Brody Mihocek had his best game in months, Dan McStay is building, and Jack Ginnivan looks to have been successfully reprogrammed, albeit off a small sample size to assess.
Captain Darcy Moore, jacket on, puts his arm around substitute Jack Ginnivan.Credit: AFL Photos
Chris Scott was testier than usual at his post-match press conference, in which he fired back at reporters and labelled Pies fans “juvenile” for repeatedly booing Ollie Henry. A fierce competitor, Scott never concedes, but deep in his heart of hearts he must know this is a campaign that is slipping away from him. This game was a snapshot of the Cats’ premiership defence: good in spurts but not for long enough; too much was left to too few. They could not have asked for much more from Jeremy Cameron and Patrick Dangerfield, yet were still beaten. Injuries continue to hobble. They have not been able to pick close to a full-strength team.
Tom Hawkins is close to a return only for Gary Rohan and Rhys Stanley to join Mark Blicavs and Jack Henry in the casualty ward. If Cam Guthrie plays as the sub this week, we’ll know the Cats are desperate, even if Scott disagrees. Their record demands respect, more so than their output this year. – Andrew Wu
Essendon d North Melbourne
This was far from Zach Merrett’s finest game of the season, but his perseverance to push through Curtis Taylor’s hard tag speaks volumes about his transformation as a leader. Never did he complain “woe is me”. Instead, he put his head down and kept working, sacrificing himself at stoppages by going to another North midfielder to release a teammate. His tally of 21 possessions was well down from his season average of 29, but he laid eight tackles to lead from the front defensively – an area of the game he is now strong in but which remains a weakness for the Dons. Nick Larkey will most likely be pipped for a key-forward post in the All Australian team, but in many ways what he has done this season has been more difficult than the achievements of Charlie Curnow or Taylor Walker. In a side that has struggled to score, Larkey has booted 56 goals, raising the question of what he could do when North get out of the cellar. By then, North should have other options inside 50 metres, so Larkey will not be asked to shoulder such a heavy burden, but the quality of opportunities for him should improve. He was immense against the Bombers with five goals, and also competed hard to bring the ball to ground when outnumbered or out of position. – Andrew Wu
Sydney d Gold Coast
The Swans have sensationally won five in a row and look a lot more like the team that played in a grand final last year than one that started the season 3-6 and nearly slipped to 3-7 against North Melbourne in round 10. Finals are still well and truly an option for Sydney, however the next two weeks will provide a true guide to their credentials. The games ahead are against Adelaide in Adelaide and Melbourne at the SCG. The Suns challenged the Swans, and led at quarter-time and half-time, but Sydney’s tackling was elite in the second half, and that helped them see off the Suns. Without Lance Franklin, Isaac Heeney and Tom Papley showed how important they are to the forward line. Chad Warner was terrific, while lesser names Logan McDonald and Will Hayward also played well. Suns interim coach Steven King was left to lament missed opportunities late, but Damien Hardwick – who is expected to take the reins in 2024 – would have seen a few things to get him excited about next year. – Damien Ractliffe
Brisbane d Adelaide
The Brisbane Lions are now outright second on the ladder, after hanging on for a narrow win over Adelaide at the Gabba. All eyes now turn to next week’s clash against leaders Collingwood at Marvel Stadium. Win that, and the Lions all but sew up two home finals at the Gabba, where they have been unbeaten (and seemingly unbeatable) all year. Of course, their record away from home is another matter. They’ll almost certainly have to do it without veteran Jack Gunston, who is waiting on scans after injuring a knee. Adelaide now needs a Stephen Bradbury-esque miracle to make the eight (ie: they need to win their last two games and hope everyone else falls over). Unlikely, but they have made major progress in 2023 – the heaviest-scoring team of the year after 22 rounds, with a very healthy percentage, suggests the Crows could and probably should be much higher than 12th on the ladder. – Andrew Stafford
Tom de Koning lifts Carlton teammate Matthew Owies after a goal against Melbourne.Credit: Getty
Carlton d Melbourne
If the Blues weren’t being taken seriously as a premiership threat, they surely are now, having toppled an opponent that is eyeing a top-two finish, a fortnight after disposing of the flag favourite. The Blues are an elite defensive unit for a reason, and the Demons struggled for inside 50s (48), and then conversion, throughout this cold night at the MCG. The Blues knew they could not kick long too often, for the Demons have an elite rebounding half-back line, so backed their plan to have numbers around the ball and head forward in a more calculated manner. Skipper Patrick Cripps had arguably his best game of the season (29 disposals), having a direct hand in the Blues’ three-goal burst to unlock a knotted scoreline at the final change – and ultimately gave them enough to hang on for victory. Fellow hard nut George Hewett was robust, while Paddy Dow is becoming a consistent midfield presence. What do the Blues do with him when Sam Walsh and Adam Cerra return? Charlie Curnow and master defender Steven May had an enthralling battle – Curnow’s long bomb for goal during that final-term burst delivering him the honours. The Demons have embraced a more attacking manner recently, but the Blues halted their midfield surge. Has their system been exposed? Christian Petracca and Jack Viney were magnificent, Clayton Oliver made a superb return after a 10-week injury lay-off, but the jury is still out on the Max Gawn-Brodie Grundy partnership. Gawn spent more than 70 per cent of the game in the ruck, Grundy, according to coach Simon Goodwin, also having more time there than expected. Grundy was solid as a forward, but can he really get the job done inside 50 metres when September rolls around? The watch continues. – Jon Pierik
Fremantle d West Coast
Could this be the game that prematurely ends Adam Simpson’s stint at the Eagles? The cellar-dwellers have had some bad losses this season, but a derby thumping by 101 points – noting Fremantle were sitting 15th on the ladder going into the match – is nearly as bad as it gets. Things looked so promising early for West Coast, who had the first two goals of the game and 11 of the first inside-50s. But the Dockers flicked a switch and finished with 20 of the next 22 goals, boasting contributors across the park. Lachie Schultz kicked 5.3 and just shaded Luke Jackson for the best-afield medal, while Jordan Clark and Caleb Serong were also among the Dockers’ most prolific. The win ultimately means very little for Fremantle, however, as they can’t play finals and have really slipped off the perch after a number of years making progress under Justin Longmuir. The story here, however, is what ramifications that result has for the Eagles. – Damien Ractliffe
Jai Newcombe handpasses, one of his 40 possessions against the Western Bulldogs.Credit: Getty
Hawthorn d Western Bulldogs
Right now, it’s difficult to tell who this result tells us more about: the Hawks, who refuse to throw in the towel despite long being out of finals contention; or the Bulldogs, who continue to tease and dupe their fans and the wider footy public? It’s difficult now to believe that Sam Mitchell‘s Hawks were the subject of tanking speculation earlier in the season. This was their second successive win against a top-eight team (last week it was flag favourites Collingwood), so they are building genuine momentum and positivity for their off-season. Despite their slide down the ladder in recent seasons, the Hawks’ record at their home away from home in Launceston remains formidable; they’ve now played 10 games there since late-2021 and won seven of them. In his 50th game, Jai Newcombe showed the benefit of the extra midfield time he’s been afforded, racking up 40 possessions in a best-afield display, but veteran Chad Wingard didn’t last long before hurting his Achilles tendon. The Dogs, on the other hand, have some headaches, as might their stoppage king Tom Liberatore, who looked wobbly after copping a nasty cut to his head and was subbed out of the game in the second term. It’s a worry that on a day when skipper Marcus Bontempelli was a smidgen below his best (23 possessions) he was still their best player. They’ve put their finals place in jeopardy, slipping to eighth on the ladder, but do have the comfort of a match against West Coast coming up this week. Geelong in Geelong in the final round is a different proposition. – Greg Dundas
St Kilda d Richmond
Coach Ross Lyon never shared the widespread worry about his Saints’ prospects – and said as much after they largely dominated the Tigers on Sunday. There was a mid-season down period, whether Lyon wants to admit that or not, but they are looking far sharper in recent weeks. St Kilda’s pressure game and ability to quickly turn defence into offence remains the key to their fortunes, and this week’s showdown with Geelong will be season-defining.
As for individuals, Jade Gresham has had an underwhelming year but sprung to life to perform a leading role in the victory over the Tigers and could be important in the next fortnight. Gresham’s previously suspect form saw him used as the substitute this season, a role given to Hunter Clark this past weekend, so Lyon has not been afraid to make big calls. Will it work for Clark, or serve only to push him out the door? Clark, of course, wanted to be a Kangaroo at the end of last season.
Richmond can no longer make the finals and were listless in the first quarter for the second straight week. Interim coach Andrew McQualter is keen to finish on a high, not only to send Trent Cotchin into retirement the right way, but privately, to aid his own chances of being Damien Hardwick’s permanent replacement. There is a big watch on Jack Riewoldt’s future, too, as the Tigers prepare to play their last game in Melbourne for the season on Saturday. – Marc McGowan
Port Adelaide d GWS Giants
After a month wracked by injury, illness and indifferent form, Port Adelaide bounced back to their best in summarily dismissing Greater Western Sydney from the top eight by 51 points.
The Power were on song from the word go, feasting on a surfeit of Giant turnovers to share the wealth in attack, while their midfield A-graders stood tall. Brownlow Medal prospect Zak Butters led the charge, Ollie Wines wound back the clock to his own Brownlow Medal-winning best of 2021, Dan Houston and Connor Rozee were hugely influential and Jason Horne-Francis showcased his undoubted match-winning capabilities with a power-packed three-goal second half. A top two finish – and with it, a home qualifying final – is firmly back on the agenda. A contract extension, too, for coach Ken Hinkley is likely to be close. GWS, conversely, face a hardy scrap to now even make the top eight after dropping to 10th and seeing their relatively unhealthy percentage further diminish. They host ninth-placed Essendon this Saturday in what looms as a potential mini-elimination final for both teams.
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